Expected Payout for Football Squares

Ever wonder which squares you want to get in your Football Squares pool? I did a quick analysis using NFL data, looking at the last digit of the score after each quarter of every game since 2002.

Assume a $100 pot ($1 per square) with these payouts:

  • 1st quarter: $12.50
  • Halftime: $25
  • 3rd quarter: $12.50
  • Final: $50

Here’s the expected payout of each square:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
1 $0.90 $0.17 $0.95 $1.40 $0.25 $0.45 $1.36 $0.51 $0.35 $1.24
2 $0.17 $0.07 $0.18 $0.33 $0.14 $0.14 $0.46 $0.09 $0.12 $0.49
3 $0.95 $0.18 $2.86 $1.63 $0.19 $1.18 $2.98 $0.54 $0.47 $4.27
4 $1.40 $0.33 $1.63 $2.17 $0.25 $0.72 $2.82 $0.53 $0.45 $2.96
5 $0.25 $0.14 $0.19 $0.25 $0.15 $0.13 $0.47 $0.22 $0.10 $0.46
6 $0.45 $0.14 $1.18 $0.72 $0.13 $0.55 $1.13 $0.24 $0.24 $1.52
7 $1.36 $0.46 $2.98 $2.82 $0.47 $1.13 $4.22 $0.55 $0.56 $5.67
8 $0.51 $0.09 $0.54 $0.53 $0.22 $0.24 $0.55 $0.46 $0.13 $0.88
9 $0.35 $0.12 $0.47 $0.45 $0.10 $0.24 $0.56 $0.13 $0.16 $0.57
0 $1.24 $0.49 $4.27 $2.96 $0.46 $1.52 $5.67 $0.88 $0.57 $7.45

Any expected payout greater than $1 (shown in bold) is a great square!

(Disclaimer: This database is derived from theĀ AdvancedNFLStats.com play-by-play dataset, which contains play data through Week 12 of the 2013 regular season. All subsequent processing is automated and has not been verified for accuracy. I make no guarantee that these stats are accurate — use at your own risk!)