Ever wonder which squares you want to get in your Football Squares pool? I did a quick analysis using NFL data, looking at the last digit of the score after each quarter of every game since 2002.
Assume a $100 pot ($1 per square) with these payouts:
- 1st quarter: $12.50
- Halftime: $25
- 3rd quarter: $12.50
- Final: $50
Here’s the expected payout of each square:
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 | |
| 1 | $0.90 | $0.17 | $0.95 | $1.40 | $0.25 | $0.45 | $1.36 | $0.51 | $0.35 | $1.24 |
| 2 | $0.17 | $0.07 | $0.18 | $0.33 | $0.14 | $0.14 | $0.46 | $0.09 | $0.12 | $0.49 |
| 3 | $0.95 | $0.18 | $2.86 | $1.63 | $0.19 | $1.18 | $2.98 | $0.54 | $0.47 | $4.27 |
| 4 | $1.40 | $0.33 | $1.63 | $2.17 | $0.25 | $0.72 | $2.82 | $0.53 | $0.45 | $2.96 |
| 5 | $0.25 | $0.14 | $0.19 | $0.25 | $0.15 | $0.13 | $0.47 | $0.22 | $0.10 | $0.46 |
| 6 | $0.45 | $0.14 | $1.18 | $0.72 | $0.13 | $0.55 | $1.13 | $0.24 | $0.24 | $1.52 |
| 7 | $1.36 | $0.46 | $2.98 | $2.82 | $0.47 | $1.13 | $4.22 | $0.55 | $0.56 | $5.67 |
| 8 | $0.51 | $0.09 | $0.54 | $0.53 | $0.22 | $0.24 | $0.55 | $0.46 | $0.13 | $0.88 |
| 9 | $0.35 | $0.12 | $0.47 | $0.45 | $0.10 | $0.24 | $0.56 | $0.13 | $0.16 | $0.57 |
| 0 | $1.24 | $0.49 | $4.27 | $2.96 | $0.46 | $1.52 | $5.67 | $0.88 | $0.57 | $7.45 |
Any expected payout greater than $1 (shown in bold) is a great square!
(Disclaimer: This database is derived from the AdvancedNFLStats.com play-by-play dataset, which contains play data through Week 12 of the 2013 regular season. All subsequent processing is automated and has not been verified for accuracy. I make no guarantee that these stats are accurate — use at your own risk!)
